ECONOMIC AND SIMULATION MODELLING OF SCENARIOS OF CHANGES IN MIGRATION MOVEMENTS OF THE POPULATION

Abstract

The population of any country is constantly changing. Its movement or dynamics depends on many factors that can have both negative and positive consequences for the movement of the population. An important aspect of controlling population movements by the state or other interested market participants is continuous monitoring of its changes. Such monitoring will enable analysis of the cause-and-effect relationships of dynamic changes in population migration and identify effective migration policy options. To monitor changes in the migration movement of the population, a system of methods and tools was used that are appropriate for the study. In particular, the main methods used include: simulation modelling, regression analysis, Microsoft Excel spreadsheet tools and forecasting with the creation of 5 scenarios. The information source of the study was the data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. A methodology for assessing the migration movement of the population by type of area, including interstate migration movement, is proposed. To forecast migration movement, the coefficients of dynamic regression models are determined, and a system of statistical functions is calculated. The optimal balance of migration is determined in the course of simulation scenario modelling. The tendency to increase the share of the rural population from 15.73% to 20.03% and decrease the share of the urban population from 84.27% to 79.97% in the forecast year 2024 is determined. The developed methodology of economic and simulation modelling of scenarios of changes in the movement of the population will allow the making of correct managerial decisions in the context of complex institutional systems and crisis phenomena. The methodology will be useful for representatives of public authorities and all interested market participants involved in monitoring migration movements.