MODELING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND NATIONAL TOURISM

Abstract

Tourism occupies an important place in the socio- economic development of any country and the improvement of its competitive position on the world stage. Effectively working tourism sectors contrib-ute to the creation of new jobs, fill budgets at all levels, attract investments in infrastructure, help preserve or restore cultural and historical monuments, and also stimulate the involvement of the population in tra-ditional arts and innovative crafts. In this case, a thorough study of the functioning of the tourist sector of the economy, as well as determining its contribution to the macroeconomic development of the country, is of particular importance. Analyzing trends or relationships between a country’s macroeconomic development and tourism flows can help better understand how tourism affects a country’s economy.To solve the problems of our research, we analyzed such indicators as: seasonality indices of outbound and domestic tourists; gross domestic product per person; the number of tourists served by tour operators and travel agents, etc. In the process of analysis, we used production function modeling methods, regression and correlation analyses, and separate built-in statistical functions in the “Statistica” software resource.Based on the simulation results, we obtained numerical production functions, regression equations, and models that allowed us to determine the dependence and influence of tourist flows on the main macroeco-nomic indicator of the country. The specified method of analyzing the dependence of the gross domestic product on tourist flows is the basis for further forecasting of the outlined trends.The interdependence of the index of seasonality and the gross domestic product per person using econom-ic and mathematical methods and models proves the ambiguity in the conclusions and descriptions of the resulting modeling. After all, the flow of tourists during the calendar year depends on many factors and tourist preferences, can affect both the overall production of the gross domestic product and other macro indicators of the national economy