SCENARIO FORECASTING OF ENTERPRISE DEVELOPMENT UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

Today’s institutional environment for large, medium-sized and small enterprises is dynamic and difficult to predict. The global crisis caused by fundamental changes in the business environment and financial markets has caused a structural breakdown in the logic of doing business, putting on the agenda the problem of choosing the most efficient way for companies to develop with the least expenditure of resources. Scenario forecasting can help managers to make the right decisions and thus reduce the negative impact of the external environment on the business. The information basis for our study was the results of the development of large, medium, small and micro- enterprises in Ukraine for the years 2011–2021. In order to implement scenario prediction, we used methods of mathematical modelling and forecasting, based on the study of the performance of economic systems over a certain retrospective period. Using the Farrar- Glober algorithm, we tested the multicollinearity or interdependence between the indicators. The forecasting of the development of enterprises under conditions of uncertainty is proposed to be carried out according to three scenarios. Consequently, the implementation of the modelling logic has shown that for both entrepreneurship as a whole and for its individual types, the first scenario with a 10% increase in labour costs, while the amount of noncurrent assets remains unchanged, has the greatest effect. The highest rate of growth in the volume of output sold is provided by all scenarios considered for medium- sized enterprises, slightly less for large enterprises and the lowest for small and micro-enterprises. The proposed scenario forecasting of enterprise development under uncertainty is easy enough to use and does not require a significant amount of labour or financial resources, which is especially important in the context of any business entity’s desire to conserve resources. The value of our proposed modelling is in the fact that using the obtained equations of multiple linear regression, it is possible to estimate other possible scenarios of enterprise development and select the best one among them.